Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, "this time is different"--claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears little similarity to past disasters. With this breakthrough study, leading economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff definitively prove them wrong. Covering sixty-six countries across five continents, This Time Is Different presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and inflationary spikes--from medieval currency debasements to today's subprime catastrophe. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, leading economists whose work has been influential in the policy debate concerning the current financial crisis, provocatively argue that financial combustions are universal rites of passage for emerging and established market nations. The authors draw important lessons from history to show us how much--or how little--we have learned.
Using clear, sharp analysis and comprehensive data, Reinhart and Rogoff document that financial fallouts occur in clusters and strike with surprisingly consistent frequency, duration, and ferocity. They examine the patterns of currency crashes, high and hyperinflation, and government defaults on international and domestic debts--as well as the cycles in housing and equity prices, capital flows, unemployment, and government revenues around these crises. While countries do weather their financial storms, Reinhart and Rogoff prove that short memories make it all too easy for crises to recur.
An important book that will affect policy discussions for a long time to come, This Time Is Different exposes centuries of financial missteps.
About Carmen M. ReinhartSee more books from this Author
A boom in U.S. stocks in the early 1900s was remembered by Alexander Dana Noyes, the financial editor of the New York Times in the 1920s, as "the first of such speculative demonstrations in history which based its ideas and conduct on the assumption that we were living in a New Era;| Read Full Review of This Time Is Different
This Time is Different is a timely, well-supported, and informative read, but it may be too data heavy for some readers.ProsThe book uses a detailed and original financial database across centuries and countries.ConsIt takes too long to make some points.Description'This Time is Different: Eight ...| Read Full Review of This Time Is Different
But most importantly, he says those aftershocks won’t stop the economy from eventually climbing back toward the growth it was on track for before the recession, especially if policymakers stop stepping on growth with ill-timed tax hikes and budget cuts.Mar 02 2013 | Read Full Review of This Time Is Different
7) Like Michael Pettis’ book, The Volatility Machine: Emerging Economics and the Threat of Financial Collapse, short-term debts tend to accelerate prior to crises in developing markets.Aug 30 2012 | Read Full Review of This Time Is Different
In the run-up to the subprime crisis, they note that the U.S. exhibited “all the signs of a country on the edge of a financial crisis – indeed, a severe one.” Those signs were: “asset price inflation, rising leverage, large sustained current account deficits, and a slowing trajectory of economic ...Aug 27 2010 | Read Full Review of This Time Is Different
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The authors assuage this sting somewhat: noting some well-respected .May 06 2010 | Read Full Review of This Time Is Different
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